Exploring the Impact of Weather on India's Coffee Production: Insights from the US Agriculture Department

As we gear up for the upcoming crop season in India, there's a buzz of concern surrounding the potential setbacks looming over coffee production and yield. According to the latest insights from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), it seems like the weather might just be the ultimate game-changer in this scenario. With March to May witnessing a shortfall in pre-monsoon showers, Indian coffee cultivation is poised to bear the brunt, possibly resulting in a dip in production as we kick off the marketing season come October 2024. Despite burgeoning export demands and a surge in domestic consumption, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) foresees production taking a hit owing to unfavorable weather conditions.

In the midst of these apprehensions, KJ Rajiv, the President of the Karnataka Planters' Association, sheds light on the impending challenges. He highlights the impact of soaring temperatures and the scanty pre-monsoon rainfall anticipated during the 2024-25 season. Rajiv underscores the looming threat of prolonged dry spells and the potential outbreak of the white stem borer amidst dry weather conditions, casting shadows on the crop's fortunes.

Why the Jitters?

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reports excessive rainfall between January and February in Karnataka's key coffee-producing regions, followed by a noticeable deficiency in pre-monsoon precipitation (a staggering 44% deficit). This spells trouble as the limited moisture availability could spell trouble for the crops. Moreover, stakeholders and players in India's coffee industry are grappling with concerns this time around, fearing the repercussions of prolonged dry spells and scorching temperatures on the upcoming crop.

Anticipated Downturn in Yield

The major coffee-producing regions are already witnessing a substantial drop in fruit setting owing to the shortfall in pre-monsoon rainfall and dry weather conditions. It's projected that there will be a 1% increase in the bearing area of Robusta, but the yield is expected to dip by 2%, settling at 1,230 kilograms per hectare. However, the silver lining lies in the fact that the Robusta crop's yield remains significantly higher than the three and five-year averages.

Forecasting Production Levels

In a recent bulletin by the USDA, despite entering the 'on-year' of the crop's biennial production cycle, there's an expected 1% decrease in the impact area of India's Arabica. The yield is anticipated to witness a 3% decline, reaching 402 kilograms per hectare. Projections for the 2024-25 season hint at a production volume of 6 million bags of 60 kilograms each. Arabica production is estimated at 1.4 million 60-kilogram bags (equivalent to 85,200 tons), while Robusta production is pegged at 4.6 million bags (around 273,000 tons).

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